Vào chiều Thứ Sáu ngày 19 tháng 12 năm 2025, đã diễn ra Seminar tại Khoa Toán Kinh tế
- Topic: Inflation Expectations of the General Public under Supply Constraints: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
- Diễn giả: Bùi Thị Trang Dung, NCS tại Đại học Marburg University, Đức (cựu sinh viên Toán tài chính K47).
Abstract:
Using a survey experiment in Germany, this paper examines the causal effect of supply constraints on inflation expectations. We find that exposure to a supplyshortage scenario significantly increases the likelihood of upward revisions in both official and personal inflation expectations. However, the average effects and belief updating mechanisms, depending on the duration of the shortage, differ markedly between the two measures. Personal experience of supply constraints in daily life and financial literacy also influence how respondents revise their ination expectations. Finally, a topic analysis of open-ended responses offers further insights into how people interpret and react to perceived product scarcity.
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